Committee Bowl Possibilities

[Titles 'R Us]

Our resume is strong in that we are the only team in the nation to have beaten two teams that were/are ranked #1 this year. Ten of the teams we played will go to bowls, and three will win league championships: Memphis State, ULL and Boise State are the three league champions. In addition, 'Bama will be the favorite to be the fourth league champion we will have beaten. Meanwhile, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, A & M, Tennessee, State and 'Bama will all go to bowls as well. Vandy is the lone stay-at home team. (Presbyterian finished with a winning record, BTW.)

I'm expecting the committee to at least rank us in the Top Twelve. We could also sneak back into the Top Ten with Georgia and UCLA losing. We deserve a Committee Bowl, and the Cotton and Peach look the most likely. I'd eagerly go to either one. Both are domed, so the weather won't be a factor. I know my way around Atlanta and Dallas and have been to the Cotton Bowl twice but not in Jerry's World. I'm betting we get a Committee Bowl and am pumped to go watch our healed-up guys play. But that Egg Bowl win was so sweet, and it was fun watching Mullen squirm in his post-game presser, saying he wouldn't be able to sleep for 364 days until he got us back in their place. Ha! Good shot he won't even be there!

Hey, and getting a shot at Baylor would be just fine with me. They've never heard of defense in the Big Twelve Minus Two.

[proud2breb]

That would be great! SB Nation has that projection!


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[Goroth]

It is a complete toss up what will happen right now. A lot will ride on the next weekend of championship games.

[GeorgiaREB]

I'm hoping for the Peach Bowl since I'm here in Georgia, its been a long time since I've seen the Rebs play, Gator bowl would be nice also. ESPN had one analyst suggest the Orange Bowl but I don't think so with 3 loses maybe with 2 loses (Thanks Freeze for taking the Arkansas game off)

[Titles 'R Us]

The Arkansas game was a Twilight Zone game. I still can't believe it happened.

[fenderman]

Yeah we lost a lot when they broke Treadwell's leg. That game and the Ark game

[mpzreb17]

I'm happy with cotton.

But I'd love to see us in the Las Vegas bowl.

[rickochet2]

I think you will find us in the Citrus, Peach, or Orange. Only way we end up in Cotton is if MO beats Bama. MO goes to Cotton if they lose to Bama.

I think you will find Bama, MSU, MO, & us in the Committee games, in that order. I think we are most likely headed to see Mickey. I'm personally fine with that, 3 hours away. Really hoping for Orange, 15 mins away.

[darylscook]

I think you will find us in the Citrus, Peach, or Orange. Only way we end up in Cotton is if MO beats Bama. MO goes to Cotton if they lose to Bama.

I think you will find Bama, MSU, MO, & us in the Committee games, in that order. I think we are most likely headed to see Mickey. I'm personally fine with that, 3 hours away. Really hoping for Orange, 15 mins away.

I'm just curious why you say the order will be Bama, MSU, MO, & us. If MO loses to Bama, they will have 3 losses just like us. The bowls do not look at just the conference record. We will be 9-3, ranked higher and would have beaten 3 teams in the committee bowls. Why would they take MO over us?

Daryl

[rebeljim]

My guess is the Cotton, Outback or Citrus.

[Titles 'R Us]

I think we will be strongly considered for a Committee Bowl. Despite the fact that State is 6-2 in the SEC and we are 5-3, State does not have a signature win. LSU, A & M and Auburn were all viewed as such when they happened, but they have not held up. On the other hand, Ole Miss is the only team in the nation with 2 Top Ten wins against teams that were/are ranked #1 and State is still in the Top Ten. I say this not because I don't believe State should get a Committee Bowl berth because I think they will. But if Mizzou loses to 'Bama, which I think they will, they will have ZERO wins over even a Top Twenty-five team. They beat Kentucky, Vandy, a 6-5 Florida team, a 6-6 UT team, a 6-6 South Carolina team, and the bottom two teams in the SEC West--A & M and Arkansas. The one solid SEC East team, Georgia, annihilated them. So unless Mizzou upsets 'Bama, I don't think their body of work truly deserves a Committee Bowl.

If 'Bama wins the SEC, then the three most-deserving teams for a Committee Bowl should be State, Ole Miss and Georgia. Mizzou would be fourth in my book. Teams that finish in the Top Three of the SEC West are all better than the entire SEC East. In fact, the SEC West should get credit for being the best division in the country and treated as such. I know there are tons of SEC-haters out there, but I'm confident that at least five of the SEC West teams could win any league in the country.

[JustBlues]

everyone has an opinion, and the committee's is the one that matters. However, consider this. We have beaten seven teams that are bowl bound including a likely playoff contender and State. State has beaten four teams that are bowl bound. The Arkansas fiasco is the one that really hurts our chances though. The committee is supposed to take injuries into account and all of our losses came when we were playing without key players due to injury.

[rickochet2]

I think you will find us in the Citrus, Peach, or Orange. Only way we end up in Cotton is if MO beats Bama. MO goes to Cotton if they lose to Bama.

I think you will find Bama, MSU, MO, & us in the Committee games, in that order. I think we are most likely headed to see Mickey. I'm personally fine with that, 3 hours away. Really hoping for Orange, 15 mins away.

I'm just curious why you say the order will be Bama, MSU, MO, & us. If MO loses to Bama, they will have 3 losses just like us. The bowls do not look at just the conference record. We will be 9-3, ranked higher and would have beaten 3 teams in the committee bowls. Why would they take MO over us?

Daryl

My reasoning is old school thought, could easily be wrong due to new day in CFB. The Conf runner up is usually ahead in the pecking order.

I can see, & agree w/ us being ahead of MO. I think the Ark is the fly in the ointment.

Quite honestly I thought w/ 2 losses we had a serious shot at the playoff. Thought w/ a TCU, Baylor, OSU, & FSU loss we were in. Now I know that sounds like a lot but the only loss I see as difficult is TCU. I fully expect Wisc to beat OSU, GT WILL BEAT FSU, & KSU has very good shot to beat Baylor.

I personally think the final 4 will be:
1 Bama
2 TCU
3 Ore
4 AZ or MSU

If Az beats Ore then AZ gets 3 or 4 & Ore gets other. If Ore wins PAC 12 then MSU may still get in. The Ark loss will ultimately cost us the playoff.

BTW, if MSU gets in, I will see you all in Sunny & Warm Miami for New Years Day!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just my .02

[rebeljim]

Post on scout.

What' I'm hearing about bowls as of tonight

The bowl process is completely different this year than ever before. With the playoff system, the old bowl gossip among bowl selection committees just doesn't exist anymore. However, there is still a bit of politics and some back channel talk about projections. Honestly, that has hindered me this year vs years past, but I still have some friends who know some things.

Bear with me, there is a lot of information. And it is early, so don't buy tickets yet.

As a reminder, here is how the bowls are determined, from an SEC point of view. First, the selection committee chooses the 4 playoff teams and places them into the Sugar or Rose Bowls. Then they place the next set of teams in the other 4 playoff bowls - Cotton, Fiesta, Peach and Orange. Then the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus gets the highest non-playoff SEC team, then the next 6 bowls are assigned by the SEC office. Those 6 bowls (Tampa, Jacksonville, Charlotte, Houston, Memphis and Nashville) are considered equal. Then if there are more eligible teams, Birmingham and Shreveport get the next two.

That is the company line story. The real story includes several caveats.

First, among the playoff bowls, the Orange by contract gets the highest ranked ACC team not in the 4-team playoff. This year they got lucky and Georgia Tech is having a banner year so they are likely to be chosen.

Second, the committee has to choose the best of the non-power-5 teams to be in one of the 4 committee bowls.

Thirdly, within the SEC, the Outback is considered the best of the set of 6 bowls, but the SEC will take special care of the Houston and Charlotte bowls. The SEC sees them as the replacement for the Cotton and CFA Peach bowls and they will have some priority over the others.

So as of tonight, here is how things appear to be rolling out for the SEC, assuming that there are no big upsets in conference championship games this weekend (Ala over Mizzou, Oregon over Arizona, Tech over FSU) and also assuming that no Big10 team will make the final 4 due to Ohio State's QB injury issues.

The 4 playoff bowl teams are expected to be Alabama vs TCU/Baylor in the Sugar and Oregon vs FSU in the Rose.

The SEC will enact the "Arkansas Rule" and assign Missouri to the Citrus bowl. That is the unwritten rule that a division champion cannot fall past the Citrus. That was originally put in for Arkansas' sake but applies to Missouri this year. Interestingly, the Citrus has a new sponsor, Buffalo Wild Wings, and as a Minneapolis-based company they would like to see Minnesota in the Citrus, so expect Missouri to take on the Gophers.

There are two locks in SEC bowls. LSU will go to Houston to play Texas in the Texas Bowl. Houston wanted A&M but the Aggies would rather burn in hell (or play in Shreveport) before they will play Texas. The SEC wants a strong showing for Houston and LSU is a good natural draw.

The other lock is that Arkansas will play West Virginia in the Liberty. All sides are really happy about that matchup and Memphis is expecting a sellout.

The next closest thing to a lock is the Music City. They expect to get Tennessee and Louisville. The Music City is actually a step higher than Tennessee deserves, and there was a good bit of pressure to get them to take Auburn, but Nashville needs ticket sales and Tennessee and Louisville will be really attractive and sell tickets.

State is a lock for one of the playoff bowls. Those are literally impossible to predict because it is a committee choice and the bowls get who they decide to send. Lots of people are saying the Orange Bowl against Georgia Tech, but I have a feeling TV would want more eyeballs on that game so I see a Big10 team like Michigan State or maybe Ohio State against Tech. I have a feeling State will end up in the Cotton against Baylor or TCU or in the Peach against Wisconsin or Michigan State.

Before Georgia lost to Tech, they were all set to host the Peach Bowl, but with their loss they are now on the bubble with Ole Miss as an attractive 3-loss team. Georgia has a great TV audience but have become a really lousy bowl draw. Their fan base is tired of Tampa and they only sold half of their ticket allotment to Jacksonville last year, so they are not a big attraction for the Florida bowls. In the background, the Belk Bowl in Charlotte wants them badly, but Georgia thinks they are below what the Dogs deserve. Charlotte is only 3 hours from Atlanta. Importantly, Georgia is sponsor Belk's largest market and there will be lots of publicity during Christmas if Georgia gets the bid. The SEC might just throw Belk a bone (pun intended) and send Georgia to Charlotte. And there is a decent chance Notre Dame would be the opponent, which would be attractive to Georgia.

Ole Miss is slated for the Outback Bowl. We have been thirsting for a Florida bowl for 20 years and are finally on the cusp. The Outback needs to sell tickets and they have seen how our fan base travels. Keep reading for how that might change, but Ole Miss is primed for Tampa. One personal note - the Outback committee has a reputation of being the least talkative and least friendly among the SEC bowls people. . They are known to have their own agenda. It will be interesting to see how that melds with the new SEC selection methodology.

The third SEC Florida bowl is the Tax Slayer in Jacksonville. They also need to sell tickets and have struggled financially. I see Auburn as a natural to go there due to proximity and the fact that they haven't been to Jacksonville in a long time. Their fans travel well and they are an entertaining team.

Texas A&M will enjoy the delights of Shreveport. They refuse to play Texas, so this was the next-best location for them. Actually, Shreveport makes sense for them since it is close to their east Texas recruiting area.

South Carolina will enjoy Birmingham in January. They have been there before and traveled relatively well. Lots of media are slotting USC for the Belk in Charlotte, but they open next season in Charlotte and the SEC wants to upgrade the Belk, so I don't see that happening.

Under this scenario, Florida is bowl eligible without an SEC bowl. There will be no publicity about this, but their bowl eligibility is a real pain for the SEC. They have a good name for TV, but given their year, lack of a coach and overall style of play, the number of fans they will bring to any bowl would fit into two mini vans with plenty of room for luggage and ice chests. They will end up costing the rest of the league a ton of money in ticket payments. The Big XII will come up short on teams for its bowls, so look for the SEC to make a deal with one of their lower-end bowls to take Florida.

All that said, Ole Miss fans need to watch the committee standings very closely Tuesday night because Ole Miss is right on the cusp of being one of the teams chosen for the committee bowls (Orange, Peach or Cotton). Ole Miss needs for Ohio State to win the Big10 and knock Wisconsin out of the Top 10, but have the committee pass up Ohio State from the playoff 4. We also need for Baylor to beat Kansas State and Oregon to blow out Arizona. The committee has rated Ole Miss higher than the AP all year, and right now Ole Miss is #13 in the AP. If we are #11 or #12 Tuesday night, there is a real shot at getting a Cotton, Peach or Orange Bowl shot. We have a good resume (beating the #1 and #4 team in the standings as well as beating the top non-Power-5 team) and with some luck might squeeze in.

[Titles 'R Us]

Thanks for the insights. Helpful post.