2 surprises we'll see in the SEC West this year.(OM related)
Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2011 7:56 pm
I noticed a sports book has the regular season over/under win total for Arkansas at 8.5. Mortgage the house on the under. Arkansas could be lucky to get to 8 wins but I see them around 7-5.
Arkansas figures to have a good starting defense this year. I don't want to spend alot of time disecting their defense, but I'm not seeing alot of depth there other than the interior of the line. Undoubtly though some of those guys are going to have to move out to the DE spots because the OL has been decimated with attrition this offseason and guys are being moved to TE and OT. Reports from camp say that there are 3 DE's now recruited to the normal system who are ready for SEC play. The others are true freshman. It could possibly be the beginning of a 3-4 transition for them.
Arkansas loses a 3 starting seniors on OL two of which were tackles and as of this writing are with NFL teams. We all know the OT posisition is very hard to play in the SEC and Arkansas figures to take alot of lumps against some of the overwhelming fronts they will see in the conference.
Furthermore, due to a quality outting against Auburn and Chizik's variation of the Tampa 2 defense last year, Tyler Wilson is projected to have a good year. Chizik's defense is designed as a bend-but-don't-break system in which the MLB will sometimes drop back in to deep pass coverage but other times serve as a saftey valve. In that particular game, the two times the MLB dropped deep, Wilson threw the ball to him for a pick. While Chizik's D vs Petrino's O philosphies mesh to offer a QB a chance to chew up alot of yardage, I think Wilson will have a hard time living up to expectations if such are based so much on that one game and he's behind 3 new starters at OL.
For lack of experience in OL, I don't see wins at Alabama or Lsu. Then consider Texas A&M had 2 seniors on local radio claiming their game with the Hogs was already circled on the schedule and they were playing it for pride. A&M returns more starters than Arkansas from a close contest last year, starts the season ranked in the top 10, and I think it's difficult to ask Arkansas to win this game 3 years in a row at this particular time.
That offers Arkansas a great chance at 3 losses. I'd say chances are; 80-20 Bama, 70-30 Lsu and 60-40 A&M. Two other games I don't see wins are at Ole Miss, and against South Carolina. Ole Miss Coach Houston Nutt will always have his team up for this game, and I like where his OL is this year. They are bigger, older, more experienced, deeper, and based on the difference in the two teams at OL, and Ole Miss at home, It's hard to imagine a win for Arkansas but I'll go 55-45.
The South Carolina game offers a different dynamic altogether. With Garcia, Lattimore, and Jefferys returning, the latter two both who figure to command a double team, and SC projected to have one of the top 3 front fours in the nation, I don't like Arkansas even at home against SC. Like A&M, It's hard to consider 2 programs with similar recruiting potential, and expect one to win a match-up 3 years in a row. Even if you look at Arkansas' blow out win in Columbia last year and think they must match-up good at home, you have to remember that SC went in to that game realizing a few hours prior that the next week in the Swamp was going to be played for the East regardless of the Arkansas outcome and the BCS was not on the line. Lattimore was a non-factor, and Garcia appeared to not give a crap when they got behind. This year likely won't offer the same rare scenario and it seems like SC's year in this series. 55-45.
That could leave Arkansas around 7-5 on paper if theortically all teams entered each game healthy and you could eliminate all freak plays , turn overs and bad officiating from all games. But, Arkansas always seems to win a game they shouldn't, so my on paper losses will likely yield a win but that still gets us at 8. However, remember this. Auburn, Tennessee, and Msu will come to Arkansas and all seem to always have some decent front 7 capable of holding their own against inexperienced OL and capable of getting to the fourth quarter in a defensive type game. Petrino showed last year and admitted as such after the A&M game, he got conservative on offense b/c of his confidence in the defense. Even Vandy on the road is no gauranteed win. In 09 Tennessee faced Alabama, then the following year Lsu as heavy underdogs but went into the final play of a conservative game with a great chance to win, and a little bad luck to not. That says something about TN, and says something about over-looking people in the SEC particularly relying on defense as both teams were heavily favored at home. Considering Troy, the Sunbelt typical winner, TN, Auburn, Vandy, and MSU, I think Arkansas stands a 40% chance at losing one of these.
The other surprise could be Ole Miss. One team I am waiting to see an over-under win total for is the good ole Black Bears. Everyone has them picked at the bottom of the West and the numbers Vegas are throwing out has them there at a landslide. Maybe we won't have an over-under for wins, b/c it's like putting odds on Buster Douglas to beat Mike Tyson. However, Ole Miss appears to have settled on a starting offensive line with Patrick Junen rounding out the left gaurd spot. With the addition of JR transfer Matt Hall, this makes for a very good OL on paper with alot of combined starts at the OT posistions and size, age, and experience inside. Ole Miss hasn't settled on a QB as of now, but recall Nutt going 8-0 with a true freshman who turned out to be one of the biggest busts in college football history. With experience and quality at RB and a young but talented WR corp and some older guys who've caught some balls, this offense appears to be in good shape.
The defense could be a different story, but it really can't be any worse than 2010. The root of the problem for last years defense appeared to start upfront with a NT playing in a 4-3 system, and often times appeared to be freelancing and guessing wrong, and other times appeared tentative of chop blocks. Whatever the case, the unit was often not on the same page, below average in speed as a unit, and should at least be quicker and more organized this year.
I like this schedule because the toughest 4 games, GA, Bama, Lsu, and Ark are at home. I think Ole Miss will win 2 of these games, and possibly 3. Bama, Msu, and Auburn have won this series at least 2 years in a row. Out of that group, I like Ole Miss chances to win at least one on the "it's their turn" theory alone. KY and Vandy are also winnable games on the road. If I were to place a wager now, I'd say Nutt's due to lose to KY again in a crapfest just when fans are feeling good, but beat Vandy, since he typically does each about half the time throughout his career. I don't see anymore OOC regular season losses now that Nutt's offensive line recruits are firmly in place and experienced. The thing that really stands out about this team is it could be the best OL in the conference, which is the backbone of any football team. Considering where it was when he got there, Nutt's done an admirable job getting it where it is. Ironically, you obviously can't say the same 4 years later for the program he left behind as guys he recruited there have slowly dissolved.
When no one expects Nutt to do anything he always does something. And when the experts think they have a season all figured out they usually are pretty far off. If anyone can find a book with Ole Miss at 6 wins which is about what I would expect, let me know. I think they can win 8 and with a little luck and a little defense, probabaly more.
Arkansas figures to have a good starting defense this year. I don't want to spend alot of time disecting their defense, but I'm not seeing alot of depth there other than the interior of the line. Undoubtly though some of those guys are going to have to move out to the DE spots because the OL has been decimated with attrition this offseason and guys are being moved to TE and OT. Reports from camp say that there are 3 DE's now recruited to the normal system who are ready for SEC play. The others are true freshman. It could possibly be the beginning of a 3-4 transition for them.
Arkansas loses a 3 starting seniors on OL two of which were tackles and as of this writing are with NFL teams. We all know the OT posisition is very hard to play in the SEC and Arkansas figures to take alot of lumps against some of the overwhelming fronts they will see in the conference.
Furthermore, due to a quality outting against Auburn and Chizik's variation of the Tampa 2 defense last year, Tyler Wilson is projected to have a good year. Chizik's defense is designed as a bend-but-don't-break system in which the MLB will sometimes drop back in to deep pass coverage but other times serve as a saftey valve. In that particular game, the two times the MLB dropped deep, Wilson threw the ball to him for a pick. While Chizik's D vs Petrino's O philosphies mesh to offer a QB a chance to chew up alot of yardage, I think Wilson will have a hard time living up to expectations if such are based so much on that one game and he's behind 3 new starters at OL.
For lack of experience in OL, I don't see wins at Alabama or Lsu. Then consider Texas A&M had 2 seniors on local radio claiming their game with the Hogs was already circled on the schedule and they were playing it for pride. A&M returns more starters than Arkansas from a close contest last year, starts the season ranked in the top 10, and I think it's difficult to ask Arkansas to win this game 3 years in a row at this particular time.
That offers Arkansas a great chance at 3 losses. I'd say chances are; 80-20 Bama, 70-30 Lsu and 60-40 A&M. Two other games I don't see wins are at Ole Miss, and against South Carolina. Ole Miss Coach Houston Nutt will always have his team up for this game, and I like where his OL is this year. They are bigger, older, more experienced, deeper, and based on the difference in the two teams at OL, and Ole Miss at home, It's hard to imagine a win for Arkansas but I'll go 55-45.
The South Carolina game offers a different dynamic altogether. With Garcia, Lattimore, and Jefferys returning, the latter two both who figure to command a double team, and SC projected to have one of the top 3 front fours in the nation, I don't like Arkansas even at home against SC. Like A&M, It's hard to consider 2 programs with similar recruiting potential, and expect one to win a match-up 3 years in a row. Even if you look at Arkansas' blow out win in Columbia last year and think they must match-up good at home, you have to remember that SC went in to that game realizing a few hours prior that the next week in the Swamp was going to be played for the East regardless of the Arkansas outcome and the BCS was not on the line. Lattimore was a non-factor, and Garcia appeared to not give a crap when they got behind. This year likely won't offer the same rare scenario and it seems like SC's year in this series. 55-45.
That could leave Arkansas around 7-5 on paper if theortically all teams entered each game healthy and you could eliminate all freak plays , turn overs and bad officiating from all games. But, Arkansas always seems to win a game they shouldn't, so my on paper losses will likely yield a win but that still gets us at 8. However, remember this. Auburn, Tennessee, and Msu will come to Arkansas and all seem to always have some decent front 7 capable of holding their own against inexperienced OL and capable of getting to the fourth quarter in a defensive type game. Petrino showed last year and admitted as such after the A&M game, he got conservative on offense b/c of his confidence in the defense. Even Vandy on the road is no gauranteed win. In 09 Tennessee faced Alabama, then the following year Lsu as heavy underdogs but went into the final play of a conservative game with a great chance to win, and a little bad luck to not. That says something about TN, and says something about over-looking people in the SEC particularly relying on defense as both teams were heavily favored at home. Considering Troy, the Sunbelt typical winner, TN, Auburn, Vandy, and MSU, I think Arkansas stands a 40% chance at losing one of these.
The other surprise could be Ole Miss. One team I am waiting to see an over-under win total for is the good ole Black Bears. Everyone has them picked at the bottom of the West and the numbers Vegas are throwing out has them there at a landslide. Maybe we won't have an over-under for wins, b/c it's like putting odds on Buster Douglas to beat Mike Tyson. However, Ole Miss appears to have settled on a starting offensive line with Patrick Junen rounding out the left gaurd spot. With the addition of JR transfer Matt Hall, this makes for a very good OL on paper with alot of combined starts at the OT posistions and size, age, and experience inside. Ole Miss hasn't settled on a QB as of now, but recall Nutt going 8-0 with a true freshman who turned out to be one of the biggest busts in college football history. With experience and quality at RB and a young but talented WR corp and some older guys who've caught some balls, this offense appears to be in good shape.
The defense could be a different story, but it really can't be any worse than 2010. The root of the problem for last years defense appeared to start upfront with a NT playing in a 4-3 system, and often times appeared to be freelancing and guessing wrong, and other times appeared tentative of chop blocks. Whatever the case, the unit was often not on the same page, below average in speed as a unit, and should at least be quicker and more organized this year.
I like this schedule because the toughest 4 games, GA, Bama, Lsu, and Ark are at home. I think Ole Miss will win 2 of these games, and possibly 3. Bama, Msu, and Auburn have won this series at least 2 years in a row. Out of that group, I like Ole Miss chances to win at least one on the "it's their turn" theory alone. KY and Vandy are also winnable games on the road. If I were to place a wager now, I'd say Nutt's due to lose to KY again in a crapfest just when fans are feeling good, but beat Vandy, since he typically does each about half the time throughout his career. I don't see anymore OOC regular season losses now that Nutt's offensive line recruits are firmly in place and experienced. The thing that really stands out about this team is it could be the best OL in the conference, which is the backbone of any football team. Considering where it was when he got there, Nutt's done an admirable job getting it where it is. Ironically, you obviously can't say the same 4 years later for the program he left behind as guys he recruited there have slowly dissolved.
When no one expects Nutt to do anything he always does something. And when the experts think they have a season all figured out they usually are pretty far off. If anyone can find a book with Ole Miss at 6 wins which is about what I would expect, let me know. I think they can win 8 and with a little luck and a little defense, probabaly more.
