The over and under for wins this season

rebeljim · Fri Jul 06, 2012 3:55 pm

They have us at 3 1/2, so place your bets.

http://www.covers.com/articles/articles ... Art=280138

jrebel87 · Fri Jul 06, 2012 6:49 pm

I'll say over, we will have 5 wins and one of them will be a huge win over Moo-u in the egg bowl.

MageeRebel425 · Sat Jul 07, 2012 2:33 am

Over.. 5 is the number..

bigtreydaddy · Sat Jul 07, 2012 5:50 am

Over, but just barely. I'll take 4 W's [3-1 noncon, 1-7 SEC (most likely: TAMU)]

Anything over this is gravy, and if HF manages to get us 6 and a bowl, he's the SEC COTY

academy reb · Sat Jul 07, 2012 7:39 am

Organization and Conditioning good for three wins.

Game planning and in game coaching good for three more.

Six this year.

rewalters · Sat Jul 07, 2012 9:16 am

bigtreydaddy wrote:Over, but just barely. I'll take 4 W's [3-1 noncon, 1-7 SEC (most likely: TAMU)]

Anything over this is gravy, and if HF manages to get us 6 and a bowl, he's the SEC COTY

Ditto...however I think our 1 SEC win will be either Vandy or State.

Rebchuck18 · Sat Jul 07, 2012 9:58 am

Too many variables to guess right now the main 3 being :

1) quarterback play
2) injuries, and
3) is CHF as ready to be an SEC HC as most of us think.

If our QB distributes the ball to his teammates and is not our top rusher, if we remain relatively healthy, and if this Guy can coach then I think we should win 5 and could win 6. 3 non conference wins is a must (and I still think Texas is beatable ). And TAMU, Vandy and State should be possible wins.

However if our QB is our leading rusher or we have no effective vertical passing game I think we are 3-9 overall and 0-8 in the SEC. So too many variables to bet on a total right now.

Sat Jul 07, 2012 10:40 am

Rebchuck18 wrote:Too many variables to guess right now the main 3 being :

1) quarterback play
2) injuries, and
3) is CHF as ready to be an SEC HC as most of us think.

If our QB distributes the ball to his teammates and is not our top rusher, if we remain relatively healthy, and if this Guy can coach then I think we should win 5 and could win 6. 3 non conference wins is a must (and I still think Texas is beatable ). And TAMU, Vandy and State should be possible wins.

However if our QB is our leading rusher or we have no effective vertical passing game I think we are 3-9 overall and 0-8 in the SEC. So too many variables to bet on a total right now.

I agree with this.

bigtreydaddy · Sat Jul 07, 2012 11:22 am

Rebchuck18 wrote:Too many variables to guess right now the main 3 being :

1) quarterback play
2) injuries, and
3) is CHF as ready to be an SEC HC as most of us think.

If our QB distributes the ball to his teammates and is not our top rusher, if we remain relatively healthy, and if this Guy can coach then I think we should win 5 and could win 6. 3 non conference wins is a must (and I still think Texas is beatable ). And TAMU, Vandy and State should be possible wins.

However if our QB is our leading rusher or we have no effective vertical passing game I think we are 3-9 overall and 0-8 in the SEC. So too many variables to bet on a total right now.

I concur that Texas is beatable, especially since we're drawing them early and at home. I also think that our best chances for SEC wins are TAMU, Vandy, State, and even Auburn (next best is Arkansas, who might not be up to it depending on how they rally around this interim coach).

Having said that, instead of going cautiously optimistic, I'm going cautiously pessimistic calling for 4 wins. Our program is simply too far away from real competitiveness this year to realistically call for anything more than 4-5 wins. Now, if we give all these folks a bit of time, I think we'll have the ship righted and might even be competing for bowl births as soon as next season.

jeff967 · Sat Jul 07, 2012 11:55 am

injuries will be the key
how bad will bamma beat us up?
I am thinking 6 wins if we still have a team to field after the bamma game.

kjreb · Sat Jul 07, 2012 12:24 pm

i'm gonna say its 3 wins 4 at the most. we're just not ready yet. we had absolutely no running game in the spring. and we're too thin EVERYWHERE.

MageeRebel425 · Sat Jul 07, 2012 7:08 pm

jeff967 wrote:injuries will be the key
how bad will bamma beat us up?
I am thinking 6 wins if we still have a team to field after the bamma game.

What!!!? Bama might beat us up?? There are no injuries in college football! In fact, we need to beef up our non conference schedule or join the sun belt.. I mean we are too deep not to be playing 12 juggernauts.

I agree with you, depth is a serious concern with a brutal schedule.. That is not a great combo..

Rebchuck18 · Sat Jul 07, 2012 7:28 pm

This non conference schedule is not brutal. It is very manageable with a decent team
...which is how we should continue to schedule.

Sat Jul 07, 2012 8:05 pm

Rebchuck18 wrote:This non conference schedule is not brutal. It is very manageable with a decent team
...which is how we should continue to schedule.

It's only brutal in that by last Thanksgiving we didn't have team, a coach or a plan. We are as close as you can get to being "Marshall" without having an actual physical catastrophe.

We can win 5 because we have a coach who is focused, a coach who won't throw the playbook away and ad lib the last 8 games. We can win 5 because we are actually developing the talent on campus in the weight room. Most were SEC calibre or close when they left HS. We can win 5 because the ones still here have learned that they are accountable for their failures in class, in life and in the field.

We can win 6 only because it is possible we actually win the 5 we can reasonably hope to win, and catch one napping or falling apart at the right time. I don't expect 6 wins for two reasons. Depth with positive playing experience, and playing the first few games with half a play book. I believe Freeze's system can work most of the time, but we need teams like Texas and Auburn to HAVE to prepare for a thicker playbook than we will bring to those games. If we can add sets each game, and develop our depth, we should win 5 and could get a break and win 6. Or we could go 4-8, if the timing works against us.

MageeRebel425 · Sat Jul 07, 2012 9:44 pm

Rebchuck18 wrote:This non conference schedule is not brutal. It is very manageable with a decent team
...which is how we should continue to schedule.

Phil Steele has it as the 2nd toughest schedule in the country. Most everybody has it in the top 10. We do not have the depth to play this non conference schedule and play in the SEC.. Nobody answered in the other thread, so I will ask again.. Bama, Florida, Georgia, Auburn, and the other big boys of the SEC don't play this difficult of a non conference schedule, why in the world should we?!? Do you not get the physical and emotional toll playing these big time games has on a team week after week? It's like asking a fighter who lost 80% of his fights the year before to fight Lennox Lewis, Mike Tyson, and Evander Holifield before fighting guys that he needs to beat in his own weight class.. Oh by the way, he didn't win a single fight in his weight class the year before...